Nate Silver got one big race wrong

Thumbnail image for mike-trout-mlb-com.jpgThe New York Times statistical guru made a strong case at FiveThirtyEight for the Angels' Mike Trout to win the American League's Most Valuable Player Award. But the baseball writers association on Thursday chose Miguel Cabrera of Detroit.

Said Silver, before the results were announced:

The argument on Trout’s behalf isn’t all that complicated: he provided the greater overall contribution to his team. Trout was a much better defensive player than Cabrera, and a much better base runner. And if Cabrera was the superior hitter, it wasn’t by nearly as much as the triple crown statistics might suggest....

Trout was actually slightly more valuable than Cabrera as an offensive player, considering the timing of his contributions. Add in his defense and base running, and it isn’t all that close a call.

But the Tigers were in the World Series, you might say. The Angels, though, actually won more games during the season. They just had a tougher division to play in. To be fair, Silver did predict in his piece that Cabrera would win the MVP trophy.

Meanwhile: The Dodgers' autumn of chagrin continues. The National League's MVP is Buster Posey of the world champion San Francisco Giants.

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