Campaign 2016

Trump has big lead among Calif. Republicans

trump-iowa-cnn.jpgIt's looking more and more like the California presidential primary on June 7 will matter at least to Republicans, and now comes a statewide poll showing Donald Trump with a comfortable lead here. The Public Policy Institute of California poll found Trump at 38 percent among likely Republican voters. Ted Cruz is next at 19 percent and John Kasich at 12 percent. Marco Rubio also received 12 percent in the poll conducted March 6 to March 15, before he got out of the race.

It doesn't mean that Trump will necessarily leave California with a definitive number of convention delegates, because of the Republicans' rules. From the Sacramento Bee story:

With the totals recalculated to account for Rubio’s departure, Trump remained at 38 percent while support for Cruz grew to 27 percent and Kasich to 14 percent. Under that scenario, Trump, a billionaire businessman and political newcomer, bests the others with voters across all age, education, gender and income groups....

Yet Trump’s statewide lead, if it holds, would guarantee him only 13 of the state’s 172 Republican delegates. The vast majority of California’s GOP delegates June 7 will be allocated by congressional district, with the winner of each of the state’s 53 districts receiving three delegates.

On the Democratic side, the PPIC poll found Hillary Clinton only a little ahead of Bernie Sanders, 48 percent to 41 percent. In that race, both Democrats and independents may vote. Also from the Bee:

She leads among Latinos (58 percent to 35 percent), women (54 percent to 35 percent), and self-described middle-of-the-road voters (51 percent to 33 percent). Sanders edges her with men (48 percent to 39 percent) and among very liberal voters (57 percent to 41 percent). Most voters aged 45 and older, 63 percent, prefer Clinton while a majority of younger voters, 63 percent, back Sanders.

And while fewer than half of Republicans, and just a third of independents, say they are satisfied with their choice of presidential candidates, a strong majority of Democrats reported being pleased with their options, the poll found.

In the U.S. Senate race to succeed Barbara Boxer, Democrats Kamala Harris (26 percent) and Loretta Sanchez 17 percent) line up 1-2 well ahead of any of the Republicans, but almost a third of likely voters say they are undecided.

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