If you are waiting for some big rain to come along and deep-soak your trees, don't. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration just cancelled its forecast of a majorly wet winter filled with El Niño storms. What, you wonder, was their first clue that something was amiss?

"The problem with forecasting El Niño is that it's like shooting craps," said William Patzert, a climatologist for the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge. "The dice are loaded with this global warming thing, but we don't know exactly how they're loaded."

Some forecasters now believe the region is in for a record dry spell.

Just 1.50 inches of rain has fallen downtown since the season began on July 1, and that is 5.62 inches less than normal.