It's not the respondents who call themselves likely voters, though they lie too. It's those who told the pollster they didn't plan to vote. The dirty secret of polling is that as many as half of the professed "non-voters" do vote, and the best polls find a way to take them into account. "I certainly have more faith in even a Democratic poll than a media poll,” says Republican pollster Jon McHenry. “I trust that the Democratic firm is doing it the same way our firm is doing it.” Slate
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An update [already] on Hawaii's classic ukulele