Campaign 2012

FiveThirtyEight: Obama 84% to win the Electoral College

538-forecast-11412.jpgNate Silver, the polls and stats analyst whose FiveThirtyEight forecasts runs in the New York Times, wrote Saturday that President Obama is "now better than a 4-in-5 favorite to win the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. His chances of winning it increased to 83.7 percent on Friday, his highest figure since the Denver debate and improved from 80.8 percent on Thursday."

Friday’s polling should make it easy to discern why Mr. Obama has the Electoral College advantage. There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday. Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida.

On Saturday night, Silver tweeted "lots of polls but little change in tonight's 538 forecast. Obama 84% to win Electoral College." But he then amended a bit, tweeting: "Sorry, we entered a Montana poll with the candidates' names reversed. Re-running forecast." That was three hours ago and there has been no update.

The latest on his blog.


More by Kevin Roderick:
Standing up to Harvey Weinstein
The Media
LA Times gets a top editor with nothing but questions
LA Observed Notes: Harvey Weinstein stripped bare
LA Observed Notes: Photos of the homeless, photos that found homes
Recent Campaign 2012 stories on LA Observed:
Cost of Berman-Sherman campaign: $16.3 million
Now that's close: Measure J falls 0.56 percent short
Santa Monica mayor resigns, heads to Sacramento
Measure J edges closer to (but not over) 2/3
Richard Bloom's lead grows in Westside Assembly race
How Mayor Bloomberg used gun control to unseat SoCal congressman
Gay vote may have tipped election to Obama
Republican Dan Lungren loses seat in Congress


 

LA Observed on Twitter