Parole system fallout from Jaycee Lee Dugard case

The ineptitude takes your breath away - agents made about 60 visits to the home of onetime parolee Phillip Garrido without realizing that Dugard was being kept hidden in the backyard. She was held as a prisoner for more than two decades (Garrido has been sentenced to 431 years in prison). El Dorado County Distrrict Attorney Vern Pierson, who prosecuted Garrido, says in a report that the system relies too heavily on "the psychiatric profession to predict future dangerousness." From the LAT:

"Common sense would tell you that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior," Pierson wrote in his report, which described Garrido as a "master manipulator" who had convinced court-appointed psychiatrists, psychologists and counselors that he was no threat — even while he was holding Dugard captive. For example, Pierson noted, a federal parole agent in November 1997 reported that a psychiatrist treating Garrido had offered the assurance that his "prognosis is excellent.… I do not suspect he will ever be at risk for violence."

Here's a chilling clip that Garrido himself shot. It's been intentionally blurred and redcated, but it apparently shows several young girls in cutoff jeans, with the camera focusing on their thighs.