Hooray for contrarians. Business Week's Mark Morrison says that the chances for $50-a-barrel oil are better than $100, pointing out the tepid response in the markets to both BP's partial shutdown of its Prudhoe Bay pipeline and the flare-up of fighting in the Middle East. His argument - and it's a reasonable one - is that overall economic growth has been slowing down and there's plenty of oil sloshing around. Of course, an unexpected disaster - Iran, another bad hurricane, etc. - could change everything, but assuming that doesn't happen, he sees prices perhaps reaching $50 and staying there for a year or two. And that, of course, would bring down gasoline prices. Well, maybe.