State and local jobs picture remains a muddle

The numbers were all over the place in June:

--The unemployment rate ticked up a tenth of a percentage point in California and L.A. County (11.8 percent and 12 percent respectively).

--But California added 28,800 payroll jobs.

--But L.A. County lost 9,500 payroll jobs.

--But overall employment fell by 37,000 in California and by 18,000 in L.A. County.

What it all adds up to is a simmering jobs recovery that's nowhere close to boil. Earlier this week, the Economic Development Corp. projected that L.A. County's unemployment rate will only be in the 11.5 percent neighborhood next year, despite growth in areas like trade, entertainment, tourism, and retail. I'm guessing it will be better than that, but not by much. As we've been saying for several months, there seems to be a historic disconnect between hiring and overall economic activity. This is quite a different scenario from what our economics professors used to drum into us - that once any recovery takes hold, businesses will be obliged to add more people (or rehire the folks they let go during the recession). But because of technology, overseas manufacturing, and lower demand, businesses have learned to do more with less, especially less U.S. labor. This huge structural change, which some economists had been pooh-poohing until recently, goes beyond the ability of any government intervention, local or national. Folks in the newspaper business can certainly appreciate what this restructuring has meant to them. Trouble is, the people in power either do not understand or do not want to accept the gravity of this transition. It's not a disaster - there is growth, just not the kind of growth we're accustomed to after a recession. And it's best to get used to it because this is what we're facing for at least the next few years.