Bracing for Friday's jobs report

Well, the truth is nobody has a clue - even more so than usual. Bloomberg says the estimates for August range from a loss of 5,000 jobs to a gain of 150,000 jobs. That sure narrows it down. Actually, these projections have been especially worthless in recent months because the post-recession jobs economy is so hard to figure out. That was particularly true in August, when everyone on TV kept insisting that another recession had either begun or was about to. And you should have heard what the economists were saying! Adding to the prospect of a lower payroll number: government job cuts and the Verizon strike (since settled). From Calculated Risk:

The BLS survey reference week includes the 12th of the month, and the 12th fell on a Friday in August - at the end of the 2nd full week and just after the economic freeze due to the D.C. debate. So even with slightly less worrisome economic reports towards the end of the month, it is possible that the headline number could be below consensus or even negative.

Wall Street might not be very helpful in reacting to the news, whatever it turns out to be. A worse-than-expected report might rally stocks, under the perverse thinking that bad news will prompt the Federal Reserve to get more involved. A better-than-expected report might do just the reverse.