Recession odds over next 12 months: One in three

That's according to the latest WSJ survey of 56 economists - and they're the highest odds for a downturn since the start of the recovery. Actually, they're on the low side of other forecasts and it only adds to the recession drumbeat (never mind economic data that, while sluggish, remains on the positive side). From the Journal:

In line with this gloomy outlook, the economists lowered their growth forecasts for the rest of 2011 and 2012. They now expect gross domestic product to expand less than 2.5% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate for the rest of this year and for all of next--down from estimates near 3% just two months ago. As a result, they expect the economy to add just 125,000 jobs a month over the next year, barely enough to keep up with population growth. Last month they estimated the economy would create about 148,000 jobs a month.

Still not sure how 2.5 percent GDP translates into an actual recession.