Jobless report a bit better than it seems

The headlines show only a modest gain of 80,000 jobs in October (104,000 private sector jobs added, 24,000 government jobs lost). That's weaker than the already-weak expectations of about 100,000 jobs. But there were a few positive signs:

--August was revised upward from +57,000 to +104,000, and September was revised from +103,000 to +158,000.

--The separate household survey showed an increase of 277,000 jobs in October, which is why the unemployment rate fell to 9 percent from 9.1 percent.

--More folks entered the workforce in October, which presumably means there's a bit more optimism about job prospects.

--U-6, the broader measure of unemployment that includes part time workers and those stuck in jobs they don't want, fell to 16.2 percent - still very high.

--The number of long-term unemployed fell to 5.9 million in October, from 6.2 million the prior month - still very high.

The bottom line remains quite weak. Consistent job gains of 200,000 to 300,000 a month would be required to see real improvement in the labor market, and that's nowhere in sight. But the economy is growing, albeit slowly, and the chances of a double-dip recession are relatively low - barring some shock to the system in Europe. Here's the BLS release.


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Mark Lacter
Mark Lacter created the LA Biz Observed blog in 2006. He posted until the day before his death on Nov. 13, 2013.
 
Mark Lacter, business writer and editor was 59
The multi-talented Mark Lacter
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