OC jobless rate falls to 7.8%

There's always a variance between the L.A. and OC (L.A. is a more complicated economy), but the December numbers are especially striking. Orange County's unemployment rate was at 7.8 percent, the lowest level in almost three years (and fourth-lowest in the state), while L.A. County was stuck at 11.8 percent, down from the 13 percent a year earlier. The state had an 11.1 percent jobless rate. It's just a reminder that drawing general conclusions about an economy as diverse as California's can be tricky business. From the OC Register:

Esmael Adibi, an economist at Chapman University, said Orange County's numbers were the best he had seen in a long time. He noted in the past 12 months overall employment -- those on payrolls and the self-employed -- grew by 40,500. "More employment means more people earning incomes and spending money, which will help a whole bunch of other sectors," he said. He said the 1.8% rate of growth was also strong. His forecast for 2012 had job growth at 1.8% for the year. "If we're already at 1.8% in December, who knows where it will be this year?" he said. Adibi cautioned, however, that January is usually a bad month, as employers lay off all their holiday hires.

Other comments on California's employment picture:

The Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific offered a cautious prediction for the year ahead in a report this week. It said California now is two years into what the center predicted will be a slow five-year recovery. Recent positive economic news has raised hopes, but a continued weak housing market, weakening demand for exports and cuts in government spending "will prevent the recovery from gathering further momentum," said the university's forecasters. (AP)

"The instinct I'm having is the recovery is finally starting to be real," said economist John Husing, a specialist in the Los Angeles area ports and the hard-hit Inland Empire of Riverside and San Bernardino counties.

"The recovery has legs," said Howard Roth, chief economist at the California Department of Finance. "It's steady, and I think it's going to stick."(LAT)