So far, higher energy prices not hurting the economy all that much

All that could change if oil jumps to $200 a barrel, but for now the effect isn't all that significant, writes economist James Hamilton:

There is a good deal of statistical evidence, for example, that an oil price increase that does no more than reverse an earlier decline has a much more limited effect on the economy than if the price of oil surges to a new all-time high. One reason for this is that much of the impact on the economy of an increase in oil prices comes from abrupt changes in the patterns of consumer spending. For example, one thing we often observe when oil prices spike up is that U.S. consumers suddenly stop buying the less fuel-efficient vehicles that tend to be manufactured in North America. That drop in income for the domestic auto sector is one factor aggravating the overall economic consequences. But if consumers have recently seen even higher prices than they're paying at the moment, their spending plans and firms' production plans are likely already to have incorporated that reality. For example, take a look at February sales of domestic light trucks, which includes SUVs. These were up a bit from last year, but are still 28% below February 2007. Since the original spike in gas prices in 2007-2008, Americans have never gone back to buying the larger vehicles in the numbers we used to.

NY crude is trading at about $105 a barrel, which is well below the $144 level in 2008. It's a shaky comparison because economic dynamics were far different four years ago, but the difference is worth keeping in mind.