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First-quarter filings for L.A. County were down 18 percent from a year earlier and 7.4 percent from the previous three months, according to Dataquick. Statewide, the number of homes entering the foreclosure process fell to its lowest level in almost five years. All of which suggests that fears of another wave of foreclosure filings appear to have been wrong. From press release:
"Prices peaked five years ago and then started to fall off a cliff. Foreclosure activity goes up when property values decline, and the worst of that decline was happening three years ago. Right now, property values in many areas appear flat," said John Walsh, DataQuick president. "A few years back, there were some breathtakingly negative forecasts making the rounds regarding the foreclosure problem, some of which have played out, and some of which haven't. The 'shadow supply' has yet to result in a second huge wave of foreclosures. The 'reset problem' hasn't really materialized, largely because interest rates are resetting down, not up. And, remarkably, whole batches of presumed 'toxic' mortgages continue to perform. There's no doubt that housing, especially negative equity, is one of the biggest drags on a struggling economy, but it's not necessarily playing out the way some pundits thought," he said.
Most of the loans going into default are still from the 2005-2007 period, and the median origination quarter is still third-quarter 2006. California homeowners were a median nine months behind on their payments when a Notice of Default was filed. Borrowers owed $17,897 on a median $319,418 mortgage.
County/Region 2011Q1 2012Q1 Yr/Yr%
Los Angeles 13,957 11,443 -18.0%
Orange 4,652 3,733 -19.8%
San Diego 4,758 4,185 -12.0%
Riverside 6,769 5,542 -18.1%
San Bernardino 5,514 4,722 -14.4%
Ventura 1,437 1,255 -12.7%
San Francisco 466 340 -27.0%
Alameda 2,373 1,860 -21.6%
Contra Costa 2,778 2,251 -19.0%
Santa Clara 2,253 1,496 -33.6%
San Mateo 829 612 -26.2%
Marin 309 209 -32.4%
Santa Barbara 598 481 -19.6%
San Luis Obispo 482 291 -39.6%
Source: Dataquick
Mark Lacter created the LA Biz Observed blog in 2006. He posted
until the day before his death on Nov. 13, 2013.