When you're slapping together complicated legislation at the last minute, don't expect much in the way of smart analysis. Calpers officials determined that the pension overhaul being proposed by Gov. Brown and state Democratic lawmakers would save California and local governments between $40 billion and $60 billion over 30 years. But that's only an initial estimate - and it's loaded with caveats. From the Sacramento Bee:
CalPERS continues to refine it's numbers, [actuary Alan Milligan said], aiming for a more more accurate accounting in time for Friday's Assembly and Senate floor votes on the bill. Fund staff concluded the biggest employer savings wouldn't be realized for many years if the bill is enacted, since most of the pension downgrades apply to new state and local government hires, including provisions that reduce benefits and cap wages that can be considered for retirement purposes.
If most of the savings aren't realized for 20 or 30 years down the road, when yet-to-be-hired workers approach retirement, how does this plan address the current shortfall faced by state and local governments? It doesn't, at least not an any significant extent.