Looks like a two-movie race, with the Ben Affleck thriller given a 59.4 percent chance of taking home the Oscar, according to the online trading site Intrade, and Steven Spielberg's "Lincoln," which at one point was considered a prohibitive favorite, running at only 34.7 percent. After that the competition nosedives - "Silver Linings Playbook" has only a 2 percent chance and "Zero Dark Thirty 0.6 percent. It's much the same story at the British betting site Ladbrokes, which has "Argo" as a 8/13 favorite and Lincoln at 7/4. The momentum for "Argo" has been building ever since its strong showing earlier this month at the Golden Globes - and then followed up over the weekend with the Producers Guild and Screen Actors Guild. As for best actor, Daniel Day-Lewis is a virtual lock for "Lincoln" and Spielberg is a strong favorite for best director. Winning those top tier awards might turn out to be the consolation prize for losing to "Argo."
More by Mark Lacter:American-US Air settlement with DOJ includes small tweak at LAX
Socal housing market going nowhere fast
Amazon keeps pushing for faster L.A. delivery
Another rugged quarter for Tribune Co. papers
How does Stanford compete with the big boys?
Those awful infographics that promise to explain and only distort
Best to low-ball today's employment report
Further fallout from airport shootings
Crazy opening for Twitter*
Should Twitter be valued at $18 billion?
Recent Hollywood stories:Obama meets with victims of LAX shooting*
THR's Stephen Galloway wins entertainment journalist of the year
Finke, Waxman, Penske, Min: Battle of the Hollywood trades
Photos: AARP Films for Grownups Film Festival
Best thing about next year's Oscars night probably just happened
Previous story: Shocker! Greuel's 'waste, fraud and abuse' numbers are suspect
Next story: Time Warner Cable defends huge Dodger deal
New at LA Observed
On the Politics Page
Go to Politics
Sign up for daily email from LA Observed