Traders favoring 'Argo' for best picture

argo.jpgLooks like a two-movie race, with the Ben Affleck thriller given a 59.4 percent chance of taking home the Oscar, according to the online trading site Intrade, and Steven Spielberg's "Lincoln," which at one point was considered a prohibitive favorite, running at only 34.7 percent. After that the competition nosedives - "Silver Linings Playbook" has only a 2 percent chance and "Zero Dark Thirty 0.6 percent. It's much the same story at the British betting site Ladbrokes, which has "Argo" as a 8/13 favorite and Lincoln at 7/4. The momentum for "Argo" has been building ever since its strong showing earlier this month at the Golden Globes - and then followed up over the weekend with the Producers Guild and Screen Actors Guild. As for best actor, Daniel Day-Lewis is a virtual lock for "Lincoln" and Spielberg is a strong favorite for best director. Winning those top tier awards might turn out to be the consolation prize for losing to "Argo."

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Mark Lacter
Mark Lacter created the LA Biz Observed blog in 2006. He posted until the day before his death on Nov. 13, 2013.
Mark Lacter, business writer and editor was 59
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