Looks like a two-movie race, with the Ben Affleck thriller given a 59.4 percent chance of taking home the Oscar, according to the online trading site Intrade, and Steven Spielberg's "Lincoln," which at one point was considered a prohibitive favorite, running at only 34.7 percent. After that the competition nosedives - "Silver Linings Playbook" has only a 2 percent chance and "Zero Dark Thirty 0.6 percent. It's much the same story at the British betting site Ladbrokes, which has "Argo" as a 8/13 favorite and Lincoln at 7/4. The momentum for "Argo" has been building ever since its strong showing earlier this month at the Golden Globes - and then followed up over the weekend with the Producers Guild and Screen Actors Guild. As for best actor, Daniel Day-Lewis is a virtual lock for "Lincoln" and Spielberg is a strong favorite for best director. Winning those top tier awards might turn out to be the consolation prize for losing to "Argo."
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