Summer movie glut could spell doom for some blockbusters

"Iron Man 3" is on track for a huge opening this weekend (up to $180 million in domestic box office, says Deadline), and "Fast & Furious 6" "Despicable Me 2," and "Man of Steel" are among the upcoming releases almost certain to attract big audiences. But too many blockbusters are opening within just a few weeks of each other and that could mean trouble for the lesser-lights. Among those most vulnerable, according to analyst Doug Creutz: "After Earth," "The Lone Ranger," and "World War Z." This has been a lousy box office year so far, which is why the summer blockbusters are considered so important. Also key is overseas ticket sales. In fact, "Iron Man 3" debuted in foreign markets in advance of the U.S. opening - and the numbers are strong. From Deadline:

Looking at data going back to 2001, the analyst notes that 12 films released from May through July typically account for 75% of the summer box office -- which he expects will hit $3.65B, "essentially flat with 2012." And the breakdown by genre has been consistent: Action/adventure films haven't accounted for more than seven of the top 12, and no more than three animated films joined the group. That's a problem. Studios have spent $100M+ apiece on 12 action/adventure spectacles (he includes Lionsgate's Red 2 although it's "arguably on the border" of qualifying) and five animated films for this summer. If history is a guide, "at most nine of these are likely to achieve a level of box office success justifying their cost."

From the WSJ:

With high-profile options debuting almost every Friday, it will be easier than ever for last week's movie to become old news unless word-of-mouth is extremely positive. Studios count on movies to "hold"--industry jargon for declining modestly on their second and third weekends at the box office--in order to ultimately become successes. "You will have to spend a little more on marketing to keep yourself top of mind," said Rob Moore, vice chairman of Paramount. "But the real downside is if your movie is not good and people have several other choices, the bad [performances] get even more exaggerated." A film with a budget of $100 million typically needs to gross at least $250 million world-wide to turn a profit, with that number rising as high as $500 million for the most expensive productions.