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From SpaceDaily, via Boing Boing (which got it from somebody else):
Russian-born University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) professor Vladimir Keilis-Borok says he can foresee major quakes by tracking minor temblors and historical patterns in seismic hotspots that could indicate more violent shaking is on the way.And he has made a chilling prediction that a quake measuring at least 6.4 magnitude on the Richter scale will hit a 31,200-square-kilometre area of southern California by September 5.
The team at UCLA's Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics accurately predicted a 6.5-magnitude quake in central California last December as well as an 8.1-magnitude temblor that struck the Japanese island of Hokkaido in September.
[fast forward]
But researchers still point to the fact that the science of earthquake prediction has been notoriously inaccurate and the geographic area targeted by the UCLA team for an imminent quake is very large.
"It is not specific," said Susan Hough, a seismologist for the US Geological Survey based in Pasadena, near Los Angeles. "They've made three predictions and two of them have been borne out."
At a gathering of seismologists this week in Palm Springs, a University of Oregon professor is also to present findings showing the San Andreas is "about to enter a new and violent period of shaking." Have a good summer!
* Sunday update: Kenneth Reich reports in the Times that Keilis-Borok was the star of the seismology conference, where the scientist stressed that his prediction is that there is a 50% chance of such a quake.
It would be easy to toss this prediction on the junk science heap, but two out of three correct predications mifght qualify as empirical. I am interested to see whether the mainstream media (e.g., LAT) pick up this story, hence spurring dialogue and further investigation.
As for leaving LA: I have a friend who did in fact move two days after the 1994 quake. Her exodus does nothing to mitigate the 300,000 per year who migrate to SoCal.
Last, I have two guestrooms in Portland.
Posted by: nancy at April 17, 2004 08:52 PMnancy, Ken Reich of the Times (who does earthquake and seismology stories frequently) wrote a substantial story on Keilis-Borok and his forecasts earlier this year.
Posted by: Tim McGarry at April 17, 2004 09:11 PMhmm, yeah, this is the kind of news I wanna hear right as we're BUYING A HOUSE! egads, i hope he's wrong this time.
Posted by: Mike at April 18, 2004 10:57 AMMore importantly for us Angeleno homeowners, how will State Farm react to this news? Yikes!
Posted by: MexRep at April 18, 2004 11:15 AMThings are so screwed up in Mexico, that it will take a lot more than a huge earthquake here to prevent more people from there moving to LA & the Southland.
Posted by: Greg at April 18, 2004 03:57 PM
SoCal Real Estate Lesson NUmber 1:
The BEST time to buy is right after a quake.
Maybe this will burst the bubble?
Can we nominate where we'd like the epicenter to be?
Posted by: Brad Smith at April 19, 2004 02:10 PMI live in Victoria BC, right above washington state. Can someone tell me if the california quake is big big enough to affet me?
thanks
Andrew:
A 6.4+ earthquake on the San Andreas would be catastrophic for Victoria BC. A little known fact about the San Andreas is that its terminus is right under Bastion Square.
Posted by: MexRep at April 20, 2004 11:34 AMHahahaha thats the biggest lie ever. I lIve in VIctoria.
THere was an earthquake in washington state that was a 5. and we felt a slight shake..it was like somebody was jumping upstairs..no big deal..andrew you ahve nothing to worry about!
Hahahaha thats the biggest lie ever. I lIve in VIctoria.
THere was an earthquake in washington state that was a 5. and we felt a slight shake..it was like somebody was jumping upstairs..no big deal..andrew you ahve nothing to worry about!
Ready or not...it's coming. For your information it is more than a prediction...it's a prophecy...LA will sink... If it's not this one, there is still hope...but the BIG ONE will come very soon. Get into the Ark Christ The Word and out of your Creed Adulterated Denominations...As it was in the days of Noah...So shall it be at the END
Posted by: stanley at August 3, 2004 08:51 AMI'm scared my husband just recieved a job position in Ridgecrest,Ca we are relocating there this weekend as well as our two children. I pray he is wrong.
Posted by: Jennie Arce at August 4, 2004 08:27 PM
of LA Observed
It wouldn't be a bad thing if some people move because of this news.
Posted by: Tiffany at April 17, 2004 06:32 PM