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Normally we focus on Dataquick's median prices, which have stayed relatively stable in L.A. County for much of the year (the monthly numbers had been rising until recently). But a new report that's based on a national index has L.A. near the bottom of major cities when it comes to price depreciation. Some analysts consider the S&P/Case-Shiller index to be a more reliable gauge of what’s going on than just compiling median prices because it examines price changes of the same property over time. Using that measure, Los Angeles home prices fell 8.8 percent for the year ended in October. That's not as bad as Miami (12.4 percent) and Detroit (11.2 percent), but it's worse than SF (6.2 percent) and NY (4.1 percent).
"No matter how you look at these data, it is obvious that the current state of the single-family housing market remains grim," said Robert Shiller, who helped create the index. Only Charlotte, N.C., Portland, Ore. and Seattle posted year-over-year home price appreciation. Wall Street is in a funk over the report, along with assorted dire forecasts for 2008. Not getting enough attention are several key elements: price variability (this is especially true in parts of L.A.), the role of speculators (some homes have been sitting empty since being bought and will turn out to be a tax write-off), the role of vacation homes (see above), and the efforts by banks to avoid foreclosures. Here's the report and here's the AP story).
METRO AREA ONE-YEAR % CHANGE
Atlanta -0.7%
Boston -3.6%
Charlotte 4.3%
Chicago-3.2%
Cleveland -4.5%
Dallas -0.1%
Denver -1.8%
Detroit -11.2%
Las Vegas -10.7%
Los Angeles -8.8%
Miami -12.4%
Minneapolis -5.5%
New York -4.1%
Phoenix -10.6%
Portland 1.9%
San Diego -11.1%
San Francisco -6.2%
Seattle 3.3%
Tampa -11.8%
Washington -7.0%
Source: S&P/Case-Shiller index
Mark Lacter created the LA Biz Observed blog in 2006. He posted
until the day before his death on Nov. 13, 2013.