For what it's worth...

Traders who dabble in the political prediction markets (yes, there is such an animal) are betting that it'll be Obama and Huckabee winning tonight in Iowa. Obama was pegged as having a 46.2 percent chance, compared with 32.9 percent for Clinton and 21 percent for Edwards. Huckabee was trouncing Romney. Here's a Reuters piece that explains how this works:

Traders on the Dublin-based Intrade prediction market can buy and sell contracts based on which party they expect to win the U.S. election and which candidates they expect to win or lose the various state nominating contests. Contracts are structured so that prices can be read as the percentage likelihood of the candidate winning the race. So traders buying and selling Huckabee contracts at 70 believe he has a 70 percent chance of winning.

Again for what it's worth, traders are forecasting a Democratic victory in November.


More by Mark Lacter:
American-US Air settlement with DOJ includes small tweak at LAX
Socal housing market going nowhere fast
Amazon keeps pushing for faster L.A. delivery
Another rugged quarter for Tribune Co. papers
How does Stanford compete with the big boys?
Those awful infographics that promise to explain and only distort
Best to low-ball today's employment report
Further fallout from airport shootings
Crazy opening for Twitter*
Should Twitter be valued at $18 billion?
Recent stories:
Letter from Down Under: Welcome to the Homogenocene
One last Florida photo
Signs of Saturday: No refund
'I Am Woman,' hear them roar
Bobcat crossing

New at LA Observed
On the Media Page
Go to Media

On the Politics Page
Go to Politics
Arts and culture

Sign up for daily email from LA Observed

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner


Advertisement
Mark Lacter
Mark Lacter created the LA Biz Observed blog in 2006. He posted until the day before his death on Nov. 13, 2013.
 
Mark Lacter, business writer and editor was 59
The multi-talented Mark Lacter
LA Observed on Twitter and Facebook