Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney says the likeliest scenario - 45 percent by his guess - is Yahoo resisting, Microsoft raising the offer, and Yahoo then agreeing. As for other possibilities: Yahoo being taken over by Google (25 percent), Yahoo agreeing to the current offer (20 percent), a Yahoo-Microsoft deal being nixed by Washington (10 percent), and the emergence of a white knight bidder (5 percent). Yeah, I know that adds up to 105 percent. From DealBook.