Expectation games begin

The economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in the second quarter, which of course will have everyone guessing about where growth is headed for the rest of the year and into 2009. And I do mean guessing. The gross domestic product expanded in the April-June period at an annual rate of 1.9 percent, mostly on the strength of those stimulus checks many of us have already spent and export sales that have been fueled by the weak dollar. Wall Street expected a number closer to 2.3 percent or even higher, although keep in mind this is only the preliminary estimate and will be revised a few more times. To that point, the government revised its GDP data for the last three months of 2007, and it turns out that the economy actually shrank, by 0.2 percent. It was the first quarterly contraction since the third quarter of 2001. That will get some economists wondering whether the recession - if indeed we're in a recession - started last year. Here are stories from Bloomberg and the NYT.