Tuesday morning headlines

Stocks back up: The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meets today to consider interest rates, an event that often leaves the markets in suspended animation until a decision is announced. But traders seem to be paying more attention to another big drop in oil prices. The Dow is up nearly 200 points at last check.

Down, down down: Falling oil prices are finally getting everybody’s attention, with crude futures in the $120-a-barrel range (they had been as low as $118 this morning). They'll probably keep dropping, mostly because of soft demand. That even includes China - factories report a plunge in new orders, exports are barely growing, and the real estate market is weakening. From the NYT:

Economists expect growth to slip from its recent pace of 11 percent or more annually to as low as 9 or 9.5 percent over the coming year. Most nations would envy that rate. But 9 percent growth will make it much harder to supply jobs to the millions of Chinese moving to cities from rural areas in search of work. And any slower growth could prove a shock to workers who have been receiving double-digit pay increases each year, as companies struggle to find enough labor to keep factories open. How Chinese authorities manage a slower economy, and its effect on China’s 1.3 billion people, will be a test for the regime.

Satellite TV merger?: Once more, there's chatter about Dish CEO Charles Ergen going after his larger competitor, El Segundo-based DirecTV. In 2001, Ergen tried to acquire DirecTV's then-owner, Hughes Electronics, but regulatory opposition was just too strong. He might get a better reception now that the feds are signing off on the Sirius/XM combo. From the WSJ:

Even so, any merger discussions with DirecTV -- which now is controlled by John Malone, a longtime social acquaintance and business associate of Mr. Ergen -- are likely to be long and complicated, while still facing significant antitrust hurdles. Though Dish executives and those representing DirecTV have had some general discussions about the idea in recent months, people close to the matter say no formal proposals have been made. Yet analysts believe that Mr. Ergen's other obvious strategic option -- selling Dish to AT&T Inc., or another telecommunications company -- seems less likely based on the last quarter's dismal financial results.

TV tops newspapers: Another sign of the times: This year will mark the first time that broadcast television gets more ad dollars than newspapers. And three years from now, according to private equity firm Veronis Suhler Stevenson, the Internet takes over as the number one generator of advertising revenue. In 2011, the top 3 should break down to $59.8 billion for the Internet, $51.2 billion for broadcast TV and $43.7 billion for newspapers. From THR:

Last year, newspapers took in $51.5 billion in advertising revenue compared with $48 billion for broadcast TV. But this year, with a boost from a presidential race and the Olympics, broadcast TV will spike to $51 billion while newspapers sink to $46.8 billion. And once newspapers relinquish their lead, they aren't expected to regain it any time soon. Meanwhile, broadcast TV should sink in 2009 after the political and Olympic surge, then resume growth, but it won't be quick enough to maintain its lead over the Internet for much longer.

Weak job outlook: Chapman University’s statewide index of employment indicators fell to 93.9 in the third quarter, from 99.8 in the previous three months and 113.9 a year ago. Anything under 100 means negative job growth. The index has declined for nine consecutive quarters. (LABJ)

Lacter on radio: This morning's business chat with KPCC's Steve Julian covers the recent rash of retail bankruptcies and the latest on the Bratz trial in Riverside. Also on kpcc.org and on podcast.