It's hard to know where this is coming from, but the Intrade prediction market now gives him a 17.4 percent chance of winning the election, which is roughly a 5 percentage point improvement from earlier in the week. Perhaps it's coming from recent polls that show a slight tightening in the race. Besides betting on the actual winner, you can also wager state by state. On that front, Obama is given strong odds in both Florida and Ohio - for what it's worth.