The Intrade online prediction market puts the chances at 55 percent, which is up from around 20 percent right after the election in November. While we're at it, "Slumdog Millionaire" has a 73.4 percent chance of winning the Oscar for best picture, and there's a 30 percent chance that Apple CEO Steve Jobs will leave the company before the end of the year. Intrade is known mostly as a market for political happenings, where trading tends to be heaviest. Depression talk is definitely picking up, but even the gloomiest Gusses - folks like bearish economist Nouriel Roubini – still expect only a very severe recession. Now that’s a relief.