The Intrade online prediction market puts the chances at 55 percent, which is up from around 20 percent right after the election in November. While we're at it, "Slumdog Millionaire" has a 73.4 percent chance of winning the Oscar for best picture, and there's a 30 percent chance that Apple CEO Steve Jobs will leave the company before the end of the year. Intrade is known mostly as a market for political happenings, where trading tends to be heaviest. Depression talk is definitely picking up, but even the gloomiest Gusses - folks like bearish economist Nouriel Roubini Ė still expect only a very severe recession. Now thatís a relief.
More by Mark Lacter:American-US Air settlement with DOJ includes small tweak at LAX
Socal housing market going nowhere fast
Amazon keeps pushing for faster L.A. delivery
Another rugged quarter for Tribune Co. papers
How does Stanford compete with the big boys?
Those awful infographics that promise to explain and only distort
Best to low-ball today's employment report
Further fallout from airport shootings
Crazy opening for Twitter*
Should Twitter be valued at $18 billion?
Recent stories:Letter from Down Under: Welcome to the Homogenocene
One last Florida photo
Signs of Saturday: No refund
'I Am Woman,' hear them roar
New at LA Observed
On the Politics Page
Go to Politics
Sign up for daily email from LA Observed