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How can we forget the super-statistician from the Web site FiveThirtyEight.com, who kept offering assurances in the closing days of the campaign that Obama had it in the bag (maybe it's just me but doesn’t that seems like a zillion years ago?). Now he's onto other number-crunching - specifically, this Sunday's Academy Awards. From NY magazine:
Formally speaking, this required the use of statistical software and a process called logistic regression. Informally, it involved building a huge database of the past 30 years of Oscar history. Categories included genre, MPAA classification, the release date, opening-weekend box office (adjusted for inflation), and whether the film won any other awards. We also looked at whether being nominated in one category predicts success in another. For example, is someone more likely to win Best Actress if her film has also been nominated for Best Picture? (Yes!) But the greatest predictor (80 percent of what you need to know) is other awards earned that year, particularly from peers (the Directors Guild Awards, for instance, reliably foretells Best Picture).
If you're looking for an excuse to skip Sunday's snooze-fest, here are some of Nate's selections:
Lead ActorMickey Rourke.........................71.1%
Sean Penn.................................19.0%
Brad Pitt.....................................5.9%
Frank Langella..........................3.4%
Richard Jenkins........................0.5%Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke have split the two awards that traditionally predict success in this category, with Penn winning Screen Actors Guild and Rourke the Golden Globe. But Rourke has an additional advantage: If an actor, like Penn, has been nominated several times without nabbing a statue, his odds of winning increase. Once he does win, odds go way down. Penn won Best Actor five years ago for Mystic River.
Lead Actress
Kate Winslet.............................67.6%
Meryl Streep.............................32.4%
Anne Hathaway........................0.0%
Melissa Leo................................0.0%
Angelina Jolie ...........................0.0%While Streep has won both the sag Award and the Critics’ Choice for Doubt, Winslet has amassed even more hardware for The Reader (albeit as Supporting Actress—Silver resolved this dilemma by giving Winslet half-credit for awards she won as a Supporting Actress). Equally important: Winslet is due. She’s sitting on her sixth nod without a win, while Streep has won both Best Actress (Sophie’s Choice) and Best Supporting Actress (Kramer vs. Kramer). One thing’s for sure: Anne Hathaway’s going home empty-handed.
Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire.................................99.7%
Gus Van Sant, Milk...................0.1%
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button..................0.1%
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon......0.0%
Stephen Daldry, The Reader..0.0%When the Academy wants to rebel, it does so with Best Director—this is where “edgy” films are rewarded when it can’t muster the courage to do so for Best Picture (Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain, Steven Soderbergh for Traffic). That means Danny Boyle—who has won all the top awards for Slumdog Millionaire—is a shoo-in.
Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire..............99.0%
Milk................................................1.0%
Frost/Nixon...................................0.0%
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.......................0.0%
The Reader..................................0.0%Slumdog Millionaire won all three awards associated with Oscar success: the Directors Guild Award, the Golden Globe, and the BAFTA. It’s also a serious film, which the Academy favors. If there’s an upset (which would be a shocker), it will be Milk; guilt over Prop 8 and the Brokeback snub of ’06 could split the vote, with Boyle getting Director and Milk getting Picture.
Mark Lacter created the LA Biz Observed blog in 2006. He posted
until the day before his death on Nov. 13, 2013.