A futures contract on Intrade has it at 15 percent, which is up sharply from previous levels. The Treasury Secretary has been taking lots of heat for his involvement in the original AIG bailout. Still seems like long odds (Obama just affirmed his confidence in Geithner), but he's clearly on the watch list.

*I can feel the steamroller gathering speed. From HuffPost:

The Treasury Department was responsible for inserting exemptions into the stimulus bill that allowed bailout recipients to receive bonuses, Senator Chris Dodd said in a CNN appearance on Wednesday. According to the Connecticut Democrat, officials at the Treasury Department expressed concern that if the government were to prohibit payouts it could or would be sued by companies like AIG, which had contracts stipulating that bonuses were to be paid. At the urging of and with consultation with Department officials, Dodd modified a clause he had previously inserted into the stimulus that prohibited bonuses from being issued by bailed-out companies. An exemption was added to allow bonuses that applied to in-place contracts.