Confusion on home prices

With each new report comes more and more fog. A few days ago Dataquick was out with its May numbers that showed signs of a turnaround. Then, this morning, another positive report: The Federal Housing Finance Agency's price index fell only 0.3 percent during the first four months of 2009 compared with the same period a year earlier. But there also are the discouraging numbers: The FHFA index for the month of April was down 6.8 percent from a year earlier. Plus, sales of previously occupied homes rose from April to May, but not as much as analysts had expected. Some reaction via AP and WSJ:

--"While activity has stabilized, a meaningful recovery has yet to begin," wrote Paul Dales, U.S. economist with Capital Economics.

--Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a research firm, says that the low end of the market "appears to be approaching stabilization given improved affordability for first-time home buyers and the willingness of investors to absorb distressed home sales." But she expects prices of higher-end homes to fall swiftly in the months ahead as sellers become more desperate.

"Stand by for more confusion," is how the WSJ's James Hagerty ends his post. Of course confusion is what often happens just prior to an actual turnaround, so perhaps the mixed signals are really encouraging. Then again, perhaps they're not.