The July numbers will still show losses, but Deutsche Bank economist Joe LaVorgna now expects the decline to be 150,000 jobs, down from his earlier 325,000 estimate (and way below recent months). In addition, Goldman Sachs economists lowered their estimate to a loss of 250,000 jobs from 300,000. From Money & Co.

LaVorgna knows he is going way out on a limb: His estimate now is by far the lowest of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The average is a loss of 325,000 jobs, down from the 467,000 jobs cut in June. LaVorgna says he's basing his forecast largely on the recent decline in new claims for unemployment benefits. Claims dropped to 550,000 last week, down from 588,000 the previous week. The number has been falling, albeit erratically, from a peak of 674,000 in the last week of March.