Recession 'likely over'

Actually, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said this morning that it was "very likely over," though he cautioned that it would be many months before unemployment rates would drop significantly. From the NYT:

For policymakers in Washington the more significant question than the actual date of the end of the recession will be when to begin unwinding the myriad of lending programs that were hastily created in response to the crisis. Officials at the Federal Reserve have already begun to think about that question. Mr. Bernanke and other top officials, including the Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, have warned that winding down the programs too early could lead to another round of problems. Historians now generally agree that, during the Great Depression, the early withdrawal of government programs in the 1930s led to deeper economic problems throughout that decade. On the other hand, waiting too long could fuel significant price increases and lead to a return of corrosive levels of inflation.