Tough holiday season

That's what the Conference Board is saying in its forecast released today. U.S. households are expected to spend less on gifts this season than last year's estimate. For what it's worth, shoppers in the Pacific region (that's us) are said to be especially frugal. "Retailers will need to be quite creative to entice consumers to spend, both in stores and online this holiday season, as consumers most certainly will expect major markdowns and bargains." Here's the release. Meanwhile, some analysts warn not to read too much into Black Friday, one way or another. From Real Time Economics:

"Strong sales on Black Friday may simply reflect households bringing forward some of their intended holiday spending rather than a sign that spending over the whole holiday period will be strong," said Paul Dales of Capital Economics. "It is a warning not to get too excited if Black Friday sales are reported to be strong or too downbeat if they are not."