2012 is the year!

That's when L.A. is likely to see a real recovery in the commercial real estate market, according to the Allen Matkins/UCLA Survey Project report, just out this morning. That might seem like forever, but in this world, where it can take several years just to get a project off the ground, it's practically tomorrow. The upbeat forecast matches the recent sentiments of local real estate guys. From the report:

As the L.A. economy rebounds it will be lead by professional and business services, health care, and education all heavy users of office space. What this means is increased demand, increased occupancy and rising rents. Our panel agrees and expects a turn-around in rental rates and a decline in vacancy rates by 2012. So, opportunities for new office space in the right markets will begin to appear over the next year or two and building projects begun in 2010 and 2011 will be come on line as markets begin to tighten.

For now, though, it's still pretty dismal out there, with almost no new building permits throughout Socal (much like what happened in the '90s). Rents are down about 8 percent from 2007 and occupancy is at 85 percent - and falling. The Matkins report also is bullish about San Diego, less so about OC.