One more reason nobody knows anything:

--After four straight months of declines, the number of California default filings rose 20 percent in February from the previous month, reports ForeclosureRadar. From the LAT

"The disconnect between delinquencies and foreclosure sales continues to widen," Sean O'Toole, chief executive of ForeclosureRadar, said in a statement. "While efforts to slow foreclosures are clearly working, it remains unclear that anything has yet addressed the core problem of excess household mortgage debt."

--But then there's this from MarketWatch:

Americans' risk of defaulting on their mortgages is still high, but is at its lowest point since 2005, said Dennis Capozza, a professor of finance and real estate at the University of Michigan.

Capozza's Default Risk Index fell to 158 for the first quarter of 2010, down from 164 in the previous three months. So let me make sure I've gotten this right: The number of delinquency filings is way up, but the risk of default is at its lowest point in five years. This is way tougher to decipher than the health care bill.