Walking out on 'Avatar'

I'll get to that in a sec. First, the latest picks from Intrade, the online trading exchange, show "The Hurt Locker" with a 53 percent chance to win Best Picture on Sunday, up only a few points from the last time I checked on February 18. "Avatar" is at 40.2, around where it was that day. As these bets go, a 53-40 edge is not huge, despite "The Hurt Locker"'s "sense of inevitability" buzz that crept into copy a few weeks ago. But since Oscar plotlines need surprises, not to mention bad guys, an anti-"Hurt Locker" buzz is now making the rounds. Much of the whispering campaign, egged on by rival studios, seems centered on the meager box office numbers and on negative comments from a scattering of military people, who call the film inaccurate (others in the military give it high marks). Such dirty campaigning must be well-timed to have any effect, and this year it might be coming too late. But again, a 53-40 margin on Intrade tells you that it's not a done deal.

It'll be a shame if "Avatar" does get the nod. My wife and I finally got around to seeing the spectacle last week - with Imax and everything - and let's just say that the Pandora stuff didn't work for us. Actually, I dozed off after about an hour. At the 90-minute mark, we looked at each other, mouthed "This is it?," and decided that a cocktail on the water would work a whole lot better for us. No offense to those who consider this to be a religious experience, but I found it to be a big bore. Just for fun, I took off the glasses after about 30 minutes and saw mostly a hackneyed cartoon: silly plotline, cardboard characters, and remarkably little imagination. The visuals were amazing, no doubt about it. That's a big reason for its success around the world, where effects often trump story. But Best Picture? Please, please don't let it happen.