Heading for a June jobs dip?

Much of the payroll gains in May - both nationally and in California - were based on the temporary hiring of Census workers. But with the Census winding down, many of those positions are already disappearing. From Calculated Risk:

The Census payroll decreased from 573,779 for the week ending May 15th to 330,737 for the week ending June 12th. So my estimate for the impact of the Census on June payroll employment is minus 243 thousand (this will be close). The employment report will be released on July 2nd, and the headline number for June - including Census numbers - will almost certainly be negative.

A negative jobs number is about the last thing Obama needs (can't this guy get a break?). Not only does it screw up the administration's narrative about an economy being on the mend, it raises serious questions about the strength of the recovery. Yes, there are new jobs coming online, but not nearly enough to make up for the losses. Beacon Economics sums up the May employment report:

For the fifth month in a row, California has gained jobs - bringing the total number to nearly 96,000 new jobs over the past 5 months. But while the number sounds good, it represents less than a 1% increase from the trough in December. When put into perspective, the current gains are a drop in the bucket compared to the 1,400,000 jobs the state lost between July 2007 and last December.