Fed researchers talk recession

Specifically, there's a "significant" chance that the U.S. economy will slip back into recession in the next two years, say the researchers in the latest issue of the SF Federal Reserve Bank's Economic Letter. From Reuters:

The researchers -- Travis Berge, a graduate student at the University of California, Davis, and Oscar Jorda, a professor there as well as a visiting scholar at the San Francisco Fed -- used leading economic indicators to try to predict the possibility of a renewed economic downturn. The experiment yielded vastly different results, depending on which indicators were used. But overall, they said, the numbers "indicate that the macroeconomic outlook is likely to deteriorate progressively starting sometime next summer."

Keep in mind that this is not what Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is saying about the economy. Actually, it's not what most economists are saying (not even Dr. Doom, Nouriel Roubini).