Economists not happy with jobs report

The loss of 33,500 payroll jobs last month (12,800 in L.A. County) was more than expected and not encouraging news. "The thing that is disconcerting is that we have lost jobs in virtually every industry," Sung Won Sohn, economist at CSU Channel Islands, tells the LAT. "At this stage of an economic recovery, we should be doing much better." Sohn puts the chances of a double-dip recession at 35 percent to 40 percent (other economists says the odds are lower). Even Beacon Economics, which has been fairly bullish about the state's recovery, says "this month's significant drop in private employment is reason for concern." But the Beacon folks believe the loss of jobs "is likely a reflection of the slow down in economic activity that occurred in the second quarter of this year, rather than the start of a new trend." There is also the tendency in these reports of overstating declines at the end of a recession, which means that the numbers will likely be revised upward. The slight jump in California's unemployment rate - to 12.4 percent from 12.3 percent in July - is also unsettling, although not quite a worrisome as the loss of payroll jobs. From Beacon:

The labor force, the portion of the population that is actively in the workforce or looking for work, had been growing for the first five months of 2010 but went into a declining trend after May. This coincides with the end of the temporary Census jobs. It's likely that much of the labor force decline, and the residential employment loss of 49,000 positions over the month, were connected to the end of the 2010 Census.