Follow LA Observed on Twitter here
Those were some of the not-so-encouraging words being tossed around in response to this morning's jobs report. Actually, many of the headlines were fairly upbeat (NYT: "U.S. lost jobs in August but fewer than expected"), but the overall tone was more relief than enthusiasm. Perhaps the biggest lesson about the August report is not to take this data as gospel - the numbers for June and July were revised sharply, which makes the instant analysis game a little pointless. That said, here are some snippets:
--The bigger picture of the economy's performance over the three years is starting to look very consistent. Today's jobs report confirms that. We don't seem to be in a double-dip recession. We do seem to be in a long slog. - Dave Leonhardt, NYT--Ever wonder why the nation is turning isolationist and xenophobic? Why we're lashing out at undocumented immigrants, even though fewer are here now than a few years ago; why the rise of anti-Islam feeling now, although 9/11 was nine years ago? Why the virulence and hate-mongering on right-wing radio, and the surliness in the blogosphere? The practical choice we face is this: Either major action to reverse the jobs emergency or years of intolerably high unemployment coupled with demagoguery and scapegoating. Robert Reich, economist and former Labor Secretary
--Not a double dip, but still pretty anemic. So, stronger-than-expected, yes. Strong, no. - Stephen Stanley, Pierpoint Securities
--The labor market has entered a holding pattern. After relatively mild improvements earlier this year, the key indicators of the strength of the labor market have shown virtually no improvement in recent months. The private sector has added an average of 78,000 jobs each month for the past three months, not nearly enough to begin to reduce unemployment. - Heather Boushey, Center for American Progress
---Saying the economy isn't about to contract is not, unfortunately, the same thing as saying that growth momentum has returned. If anything, a read into the details of the report indicates the extent of the economy's stall. The growth in private payrolls was confined to Healthcare & Social Assistance (which seems to go up every month regardless), temp workers plus construction -- of which 10,000 of the 19,000 were returning strikers. Everything else summed to zero and all of these sectors reported numbers that were marginally on one side or the other of zero. -Steven Blitz, Majestic Research
About the chart: Vertical axis shows the ratio of that month's nonfarm payrolls to the nonfarm payrolls at the start of recession. NYT/Bureau of Labor Statistics
Mark Lacter created the LA Biz Observed blog in 2006. He posted
until the day before his death on Nov. 13, 2013.