What to make of falling consumer confidence?

This morning's report was certainly a surprise, considering the solid holiday shopping season. The Conference Board index dropped to 52.5 in December from 54.3 the previous month. Economists had expected a small increase. "Consumers' assessment of the current state of the economy and labor market remains tepid, and their outlook remains cautious," says Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's consumer research center. Those who believe there will be fewer jobs six months from now rose slightly. That seems unlikely, but perceptions will be hard to knock down until the unemployment rate improves. Of course, keep in mind that the other big gauge of consumer sentiment from Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan rose to a six-month high in December. Also remember that the Conference Board index has been up and down for several months - perhaps more an indication of uncertainty than actual despair.