More signs of bifurcated economy

Get used to it - chances are we'll keep reading those "yeah, but..." stories about decent economic growth and stubbornly high unemployment. Latest indicator comes from the Federal Reserve, which now expects the output of goods and services to grow by up to 3.9 percent this year. That's not blockbuster growth, in the way of earlier post-recession periods, but it's not all that bad either. Unfortunately, the Fed also offered grim prospects for employment. From the NYT:

Growth expectations were lifted by an improvement in consumer spending in the fourth quarter, though Fed officials were uncertain how long that would last, according to minutes released on Wednesday of the Fed's policy meeting in late January. "On the one hand, the additional spending could reflect pent-up demand following the downturn, or greater confidence on the part of households about the future, in which case it might be expected to continue," the minutes noted. "On the other hand, the additional spending could prove short-lived, given that a good portion of it appeared to have occurred in relatively volatile categories such as autos."

L.A.'s job picture remains especially bleak, according to a new forecast by the Economic Development Corp., with the county unemployment rate expected to average 12.4 percent in 2011 and 11.7 percent in 2012 (December unemployment in L.A. County was 13 percent). These are sky-high numbers, and clearly the economy can't run on all cylinders when so many folks are out of work. But the more relevant question is to what extent does a lousy job market impact the overall picture? The answer, it seems, depends on what industry you happen to be in. The EDC report projects the largest employment gains to come in leisure & hospitality; professional, scientific & technical services; administration & support services; health services; and retail trade. Those faring the worst will be in construction and government.