At least according to the online action at Intrade, the Internet trading site. An Obama win is being priced at $6.10 a share, which gives him a 61 percent chance of winning. As you can see by the chart, the president's prospects spiked last May with the killing of Osama bin Laden and then plunged last summer during the debt ceiling debate. By late last year, around the time the Republicans started making fools of themselves, his numbers improved. Today's trading is only a snapshot, of course, but Intrade bets do capture conventional wisdom, whatever that's worth.
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