Still more than two months before the election, but this seems interesting. A Gallup poll finds that 58 percent of Americans say that the president will be reelected, while 36 percent say Romney will win. Back in May 56 percent said Obama will win. Over the years, Americans generally have predicted the winner of a presidential race. From press release:
The implications of this "expectation" measure on voter behavior and the election outcome are not clear. At this point, a significantly higher percentage of Republicans say they will vote for Romney than believe he will be able to beat Obama in November. These partisan views on the part of Republicans that their candidate is the underdog could motivate them to campaign for their candidate and get out and vote, or could be discouraging and end up suppressing their vote. Similarly, Democrats' confidence that their candidate will win could encourage them to get out and vote to make sure that is a reality, or could cause complacency and lower their turnout percentage. During the last three months, Romney's campaign efforts have done little to persuade Americans that he is likely to win the presidency. He will have a prime opportunity this week at the Republican National Convention to make his case to voters as to why he should be elected, that he would make a good president, and to convince them that he is a viable contender for the presidency.