The online prediction market had focused on the overall national vote, but it's now breaking down trades state by state. As you see from the map, most of the battleground states show Obama with the edge - at least according to traders. Ohio is close, with a 57.7 percent chance that the president will win, while Florida is leaning for Romney (52.5 percent). In general, Intrade wagering seems to slant towards Obama - putting Wisconsin and Colorado in the blue category, for example, seems a stretch at this point. And for some weird reason,
Arkansas Oklahoma is only in light red, with a 54 percent chance of Romney winning the state (94 percent is more like it). Meanwhile, the NYT's Nate Silver wonders whether this morning's weak jobs report will make all that much difference in the race:
The report did not change the basic story of an economy that is experiencing subpar growth but is in recovery rather than recession. The jobs numbers are subject to a fair amount of statistical noise; on average, the monthly job-growth number misses the market's expectation by about 70,000 jobs. As a rough rule, the jobs numbers might have to be off about that much in one direction or another to tell a substantially different economic story, which in this case would have meant fewer than about 60,000 jobs being created or more than about 190,000. Instead, the government reported that 96,000 jobs were added in August, weaker than consensus expectations that about 135,000 jobs would be created.