Chances of Obama win edging higher on trading markets

Intrade gives the president a 67 percent probability of being reelected, up several points from last week, while British-based Betfair is running just under 75 percent. Just to be clear, these numbers are only gauging the chances of the election going one way or another. They do not assure a win or a loss. Meanwhile, the election modeling methods of the NYT's Nate Silver - and to a lesser extent a few others - have drawn lots of fire in recent days from Republicans who are not thrilled about what the electoral numbers show. Silver now gives Obama a nearly 80 percent chance of winning reelection. From the Washington Post's Ezra Klein:

It's important to be clear about this: If Silver's model is hugely wrong -- if all the models are hugely wrong, and the betting markets are hugely wrong -- it's because the polls are wrong. Silver's model is, at this point, little more than a sophisticated form of poll aggregation. But it's just as important to be clear about this: If Mitt Romney wins on election day, it doesn't mean Silver's model was wrong. After all, the model has been fluctuating between giving Romney a 25 percent and 40 percent chance of winning the election. That's a pretty good chance! If you told me I had a 35 percent chance of winning a million dollars tomorrow, I'd be excited. And if I won the money, I wouldn't turn around and tell you your information was wrong. I'd still have no evidence I'd ever had anything more than a 35 percent chance.

I suppose. But c'mon, if there's an 80 percent chance of rain tomorrow, you're not thinking about the 20 percent chance that it won't rain. You're counting on rain. Silver is under enormous pressure from both sides, and for the most part he's played it fair and square. Still, I'm not sure it was the wisest idea to appear on Bill Maher's show last Friday or to make a $2,000 bet with MSNBC's Joe Scarborough that Obama was going to win.

More by Mark Lacter:
American-US Air settlement with DOJ includes small tweak at LAX
Socal housing market going nowhere fast
Amazon keeps pushing for faster L.A. delivery
Another rugged quarter for Tribune Co. papers
How does Stanford compete with the big boys?
Those awful infographics that promise to explain and only distort
Best to low-ball today's employment report
Further fallout from airport shootings
Crazy opening for Twitter*
Should Twitter be valued at $18 billion?
Recent Campaign 2012 stories:
Cost of Berman-Sherman campaign: $16.3 million
Now that's close: Measure J falls 0.56 percent short
Santa Monica mayor resigns, heads to Sacramento
Measure J edges closer to (but not over) 2/3
Richard Bloom's lead grows in Westside Assembly race

New at LA Observed
On the Media Page
Go to Media

On the Politics Page
Go to Politics
Arts and culture

Sign up for daily email from LA Observed

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Mark Lacter
Mark Lacter created the LA Biz Observed blog in 2006. He posted until the day before his death on Nov. 13, 2013.
Mark Lacter, business writer and editor was 59
The multi-talented Mark Lacter
LA Observed on Twitter and Facebook