Why Ohio isn't that close (despite what the media hypsters are saying)*

Of the 30 most recent polls in the state, Romney leads in just two - and both surveys come from Republican-leaning groups. Obama has led Ohio for the entire campaign - and as the folks who study this stuff closely will tell you, polling consistency is a very big deal. That's why North Carolina is almost certainly going to Romney - he's led the way in most polling (even though some results are tighter than others). Predictwise gives the president a nearly 80 percent chance of taking Ohio while the NYT's Nate Silver has it at 87 percent. Yes, there's a chance that all the pollsters are wrong - it's just not likely. Let's also point out that despite the hype you're hearing from mainstream media types (they're dying for this to be a nail biter), a 3-point edge in the polls of polls isn't especially close, not the day before the election.

*The Washington Post's Ezra Klein, who predicts an Obama win, seconds that motion:

I have a simple rule when predicting presidential elections: The polls, taken together, are typically pretty accurate. Systemic problems, while possible, aren't likely. There are a lot of pollsters producing a lot of polls and each and every one of them has every incentive to try and get it right. When they converge, it's typically with good reason. And right now, they have converged. The 3-4 percentage point error necessary for Romney to be the real favorite in this race is extremely unlikely.

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Mark Lacter
Mark Lacter created the LA Biz Observed blog in 2006. He posted until the day before his death on Nov. 13, 2013.
Mark Lacter, business writer and editor was 59
The multi-talented Mark Lacter
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