LA economy slowing down

Growth is growth and all that, but at this stage of the recovery the pace should be picking up, not slowing down. Job growth in L.A. County was 2.1 percent during the fourth quarter, which wouldn't be so terrible were it not for the still-high jobless rate (10.3 percent in March) that's been running well above the statewide level. Part of the problem, says Beacon Economics in a new report, is near-stagnant manufacturing growth between late 2011 and late 2012. By comparison, manufacturing employment in the Inland Empire rose 2 percent year-over-year. Certain sectors are doing quite well in L.A. - technology and entertainment for example - but overall Beacon is forecasting only modest growth through the rest of the year and into 2014. Another cause for some concern is a slowdown in consumer spending. From the report:

In light of slowing taxable sales growth, as well as increases in payroll taxes and continuing uncertainty regarding the federal budget, consumer spending in Los Angeles is expected to grow at a slow, steady rate over the next couple of quarters. Taxable sales growth should stand at 1.7% in the third quarter of 2013. After that, taxable sales are forecast to increase at a fairly consistent rate of 4.5% to 5% over the next few years. By mid-2016, taxable sales growth is expected to stand at 5.1%. Gross taxable sales in the region should reach $40 billion by mid-2016, compared to $33.5 billion currently. The pace of growth in consumer spending is expected to decelerate somewhat in the latter half of the decade, but Beacon Economics forecasts that by the end of 2018, taxable sales in Los Angeles will have increased by roughly 30% over current levels.