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SurveyUSA is the polling operation that uses the recorded voice of KABC news anchor Marc Brown to ask questions and lets respondents answer without talking to an actual human. They claim superior accuracy; many pollsters disagree, strenuously. Anyway, Channel 7 is out with a last robo-poll today showing a much different snapshot than the Times polls have seen. SurveyUSA has Villaraigosa with 41%, and the race for second place a too-close-to-call pack of Hahn 17%, Parks 15%, Hertzberg 14%. The poll is claiming a margin of error of 4.8 points. It's consistent with SurveyUSA's previous poll, but with Villaraigosa pulling ahead. If true, this would tend to validate Villaraigosa's strategy of floating mostly above the fray and appearing more mayoral. It would cast some doubt on the wisdom of Hertzberg's gimmicks, which are fun but you do hear people wondering if he comes across as mayoral enough. It puts Parks higher than in other polls, and continues to show that Hahn is woefully unpopular and that Alarcon is not a factor. BoifromTroy has some thoughts on releasing polls like this so close to the election.
* Also: Joe Scott gives Hahn a less than 50% chance of making the runoff. If he does against Villaraigosa, Scott says L.A. gets its first Latino mayor since Cristobal Aguilar. If it's Hahn vs. Hertzberg, the first Jewish mayor. If it's Hertzberg vs. Villaraigosa, "six weeks of stirring debate and a rare opportunity to clean out City Hall political cobwebs." In that event. he makes Hertzberg a slight favorite.
** They said, he said: Six prominent members of the Jewish community say Mayor Hahn falsely claimed their endorsement in ads, the Jewish Journal reports on its website. Hahn consultant Kam Kuwata provided the Journal with signed but undated statements in which the leaders say they are Hahn supporters. From there, it just gets murkier.